2020 NBA Playoffs First Round Predictions
The NBA Playoffs tip off today, here’s how we think the first round will play out!
All team rankings referenced are from after the restart and only include teams invited to the bubble.
Western Conference
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) Portland Trail Blazers: Lakers in 6. Although this isn’t an ideal first round matchup for the Lakers, ultimately their defense will help them win this series. Since the NBA restart Portland has lead the league in points per game, however they have also given up the 2nd most points per game. We also predict that Damian Lillard will score 40+ in both Portland victories.
(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Oklahoma City Thunder: Rockets in 6. Since the restart the Rockets rank 12th in points per game, allow the 6th most points per game, have the 3rd lowest field goal percentage, and the 3rd lowest three point percentage. If you can believe it, the Thunder have shot the ball worse. They have scored the 3rd fewest points per game while having the worst field goal percentage in the league. If Houston can control the pace and are able to limit any one of the five OKC players that average double digit points they will win the series.
(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Utah Jazz: Nuggets in 6. Denver went without Gary Harris and Will Barton for all 8 seeding games (both have also been ruled out for game 1 of this series). Utah will be without starting point guard Mike Conley who left the bubble to be present for the birth of his son. Despite missing two key players, Denver had the 5th highest offensive rating among the teams in the bubble, Utah ranked 15th. Denver has played with the slowest pace of any team in the bubble, and Utah isn’t far behind with the 4th slowest pace. Mike Conley’s absence is a huge loss for Utah (although he may return at some point in the series), and ultimately Denver’s superior offensive efficiency will help them move on.
(2) Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks: Clippers in 5. Since the restart both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are averaging over 30 points per game. The Dallas offense ranks 2nd in points per game, however their defense allows the most points per game. In my opinion this series comes down to defense and experience, both of which the Clippers have the upper hand. I believe Luka’s scoring efficiency will go down, and Kristaps won’t be consistent enough as a second option. That being said, this will be as close as a 4-1 series can be.
Eastern Conference:
(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (2) Orlando Magic: Bucks in 4. I’m not going to get in to statistics with this matchup. Since the restart the Bucks are 3-5, and that means absolutely nothing once the playoffs start. They proved for a majority of the season that they are one of the best teams in the league, and likely MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and company will be too much for the Magic.
(4) Indiana Pacers vs. (5) Miami Heat: Heat in 6. This should be a tough, hard fought series between two teams with top ten defensive ratings (Pacers rank 3rd, Heat rank 9th). The difference in this series will be the depth of Miami, this will provide them with the extra offense needed to come out on top of these defensive battles.
(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) Philadelphia 76ers: Celtics in 6. The Celtics rank 6th in defensive rating, they allow the 6th fewest points per game, and rank 8th in points per game. The 76ers rank 3rd in offensive rating, however they will be without their best playmaker Ben Simmons who recently had knee surgery and is out for the rest of the year. Philadelphia also ranks 17th in defensive rating, Boston’s balanced offensive attack consisting of 3 players averaging 20+ (Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown) and their strong defense will be the difference in this series.
(2) Toronto Raptors vs. (7) Brooklyn Nets: Raptors in 5. The defending champions hold their opponents to the lowest field goal percentage in the league, the lowest points per game, and are number 1 in defensive rating. The Brooklyn offense actually ranks 6th in points per game and 7th in offensive rating, but ultimately the suffocating Toronto defense will prove to be too much.
Let us know your predictions in the comments!
All stats found here
